Data seen by Reuters showed that the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House is expected to revive a recovery in deals that could boost investment banking income to $316 billion globally next year, a jump of about 5.7% compared to 2024.
Mergers and acquisitions bankers are expected to collect about $27.6 billion in fees, according to previously unreported figures from analytics and insights provider Coalition Greenwich, in what could be their second best year in at least two decades.
Data show that global investment banking income has only exceeded $300 billion five times over the past 20 years, with earnings power stifled in recent years by the pandemic, inflation and global political turmoil.
Bankers said Trump’s pro-business orientation would help the already booming US economy, which in turn could encourage increased cross-border deals and investment by European companies seeking growth.
“I know this is the time of year when bankers like to be optimistic, but we do believe that the current climate – political clarity and macroeconomic stability – will help,” said Richard King, head of EMEA corporate banking at Bank of America. In driving mergers and acquisitions.
“There is a lot of pent-up demand that will likely emerge in 2025,” he said, pointing to private equity funds as well as commercial buyers across a range of sectors including healthcare, technology and energy.
Bankers emphasized that the Trump administration may be particularly favorable to mergers and acquisitions because it is likely to order the passage of more deals that were blocked under the previous administration due to competition or concerns about the strategic importance of the United States.
