HC Investment Bank research expects the Central Bank of Egypt to keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting scheduled for November 21, as a result of inflationary pressures and requirements to repay Egypt’s expected external debt in November, worth about 4 billion US dollars based on circulating news, and its repayment of 1 billion US dollars. of its dues to foreign oil companies in November.
Investment Bank Research said in a recent report that despite the decline in the inflation rate in October to 26.5%, that is, less than our expectations of 28.5%, and despite the increase in gasoline prices by 11-13% and diesel prices by 17% in mid-October, we expect… Inflationary pressures persist, with November expected to see the full impact of increased energy prices.
At the same time, Investment Bank research believes that the volume of flows benefiting from price differences in Egypt remains attractive, given that there are no expectations of a significant decline in the value of the Egyptian pound until the end of the year and in 2025, estimating a positive real interest rate of 2.9% on the average return on bills. Egyptian Treasury for the last 12 months of 26.241%, (after deducting a 15% tax rate for European and American investors and based on our forecast of the 12-month average inflation rate at 19.4%).
