I wonder what are the latest developments between Egypt and the International Monetary Fund? Will the new segment that Egypt is waiting for change the economic situation? When will Egypt receive the fourth tranche of the loan? The most important question is: What will happen after the fourth review? When is the fifth review?
In the last hours, the International Monetary Fund mission ended its two-week visit to Cairo, and after reviews and discussions, the news says that economic indicators are moving in the right direction.
But I wonder what exactly this means? Is this enough for Egypt to get the green light to disburse the fourth tranche of the loan?
According to government sources, the Egyptian economy, despite global challenges, achieved a very strong performance. Take, for example, tax revenues that grew at an unprecedented rate and reached 45% in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2024-2025. This means that the state is seriously working on improving its resources. Public debt management has also improved significantly, and the fiscal surplus has clearly increased compared to last year
This is all good, but the question that concerns ordinary people is: How will this affect us?
The fourth tranche of the Fund’s loan, worth about $1.3 billion, if disbursed will help support foreign exchange reserves, which means that the state can better cover its hard currency needs.
When will I spend the fourth tranche?
Expectations say that the tranche will be disbursed very soon after the official announcement of the results of the fourth review, which was said to be “positive,” and there will be a meeting of the Executive Board of the IMF next month. In this meeting, to a large extent, the fourth review will be passed, and immediately after that, the fourth tranche will be disbursed.
And keep in mind, the International Monetary Fund mission confirmed that the structural reforms that the government is working on have achieved tangible progress despite the difficult economic conditions that the whole world is suffering from. This means that Egypt was able to take steady steps in the economic reform program, even if the road has obstacles.
Okay, after the fourth review.. what will happen?
Simply put, the fourth tranche is a step in a long program, and the fifth review is expected to take place within a few months, and this program is not just money.. This is a comprehensive framework for economic reforms that aim to improve the investment climate, increase revenues, and reduce the deficit in the general budget.
This program is moving on two paths: the first is to reduce dependence on loans by increasing internal resources, and the second is to improve economic performance in order to attract more foreign investments. The biggest evidence of this is the jump that occurred in funds and private accounts, which increased by 108% over… On an annual basis, this means that there are clear efforts to improve the management of financial resources
The important thing here is that receiving the fourth tranche confirms the IMF’s confidence in Egypt’s ability to implement reform plans, and this sends a positive message to investors at home and abroad. So let us ask the question that concerns every citizen: Is this fourth tranche enough to solve the economic crisis?
The truth is that these loans are part of the solution, but the most important thing is to continue the reforms so that the economy remains strong and independent, and the concern of all of this is to support production and industrialization and increase exports.
In the end, all these steps confirm that Egypt is walking with a clear plan, but will it be able to overcome all these economic challenges successfully? The answer will begin to appear with the fifth review… which everyone is impatiently waiting for
